My "time to AGI" is much shorter than yours... The way I see it, just building very big transformers turned out to be enough to create a kind of human-level AI. The secret is out, and there is intense experimentation and competition to build on that breakthrough. I don't think it will be long before the remaining advantages of human intelligence have fallen. AI will then become the control system of our common "society of mind".
My "time to AGI" is much shorter than yours... The way I see it, just building very big transformers turned out to be enough to create a kind of human-level AI. The secret is out, and there is intense experimentation and competition to build on that breakthrough. I don't think it will be long before the remaining advantages of human intelligence have fallen. AI will then become the control system of our common "society of mind".